GLOBAL OIL DEMAND FORECAST 2020–2035
MODEL FORECAST
CONFIDENCE BAND
IEA STATED POLICIES
IEA NET ZERO
OPEC FORECAST
EIA REFERENCE
HISTORICAL
DEMAND BY SECTOR 2025–2035
ROAD TRANSPORT (GASOLINE)
ROAD TRANSPORT (DIESEL)
AVIATION (JET FUEL)
PETROCHEMICALS
MARINE BUNKERS
INDUSTRIAL / FUEL OIL
OTHER / HEATING
EV & HYBRID PENETRATION IMPACT ON GASOLINE DEMAND
BEV DISPLACEMENT
PHEV/HEV REDUCTION
EFFICIENCY GAIN
NET GASOLINE DEMAND
GLOBAL SUPPLY FORECAST 2020–2035
OPEC+
US SHALE
OTHER NON-OPEC
TOTAL DEMAND
REFINERY CAPACITY & UTILIZATION BY REGION
Sources: EIA Petroleum Supply Monthly · IEA Oil Market Report · BP Statistical Review 2024 · Rystad Energy ·
Platts Refinery Capacity Report. Utilization rates reflect Q1 2025 actuals.
US SHALE DECLINE CURVE & PRODUCTIVITY
TOTAL SHALE OUTPUT
NEW WELL ADDITIONS
LEGACY DECLINE
SUPPLY / DEMAND BALANCE & STOCK CHANGE
SURPLUS
DEFICIT
ZERO LINE
IMPLIED BRENT CRUDE PRICE RANGE
MODEL BASE CASE
CONFIDENCE RANGE
FUTURES STRIP (2025)
VEHICLE MILES TRAVELLED BY TYPE (GLOBAL)
ICE GASOLINE PASSENGER
ICE DIESEL PASSENGER + LCV
HYBRID (PHEV+HEV)
BATTERY EV
HEAVY TRUCK (DIESEL)
HEAVY TRUCK (EV/H₂)
GLOBAL VEHICLE FLEET COMPOSITION 2025–2035
ICE GASOLINE
ICE DIESEL
HYBRID
BEV
DIESEL & FUEL OIL CONSUMPTION BY END USE
ROAD FREIGHT / HGV
AGRICULTURE / OFF-ROAD
POWER GENERATION
HEATING OIL
MARINE / BUNKERS
MODEL vs. PUBLISHED AGENCY FORECASTS
THIS MODEL
IEA STATED POLICIES
IEA NET ZERO 2050
OPEC WOO 2024
EIA REFERENCE CASE
BP ENERGY OUTLOOK (NEW MOMENTUM)
DETAILED COMPARISON TABLE
| YEAR | OUR MODEL | IEA STEPS | IEA NZE | OPEC WOO | EIA REF | BP NEW MOM. | VS IEA STEPS |
|---|
Published forecasts: IEA World Energy Outlook 2024 (STEPS & NZE scenarios) · OPEC World Oil Outlook 2024 ·
EIA Annual Energy Outlook 2025 Reference Case · BP Energy Outlook 2024 New Momentum scenario.
All figures in MBPD (million barrels per day) of total liquids.
Our model decomposes demand bottom-up from VMT, fleet, sector growth, and EV displacement.
KEY DIVERGENCE DRIVERS
DAILY TRANSIT CALLS — KEY CHOKEPOINTS (30-DAY TREND)
LIVE VESSEL TRAFFIC — AIS POSITIONS
LIVE VESSELS: Register free at aisstream.io · Enter AIS key in DATA KEYS setup ·
Vessel types shown: crude tankers (80–84), chemical tankers (85–89), LNG/LPG carriers ·
Note: vessels in conflict zones may disable AIS transponders — dark vessels not shown.
DATA SOURCES & METHODOLOGY
IMF PORTWATCH
Daily transit calls and estimated trade volume for 28 major chokepoints worldwide.
Based on satellite-captured AIS signals from 90,000+ ships. Updated every Tuesday.
Disruption score = 7-day avg vs 90-day baseline. Source: portwatch.imf.org
AISSTREAM.IO
Real-time vessel positions via WebSocket from global terrestrial AIS receivers.
Coverage limited in open ocean — satellite AIS (S-AIS) extends coverage.
Free API key from aisstream.io. Vessel type filter: tankers & energy carriers.
CURRENT SITUATION
The Strait of Hormuz has been under severe disruption since late February 2026
due to regional conflict. Cape of Good Hope rerouting active for most carriers.
Suez Canal transits also severely reduced. Data reflects real satellite observations.
LIMITATIONS
AIS spoofing and transponder disabling are common in conflict zones — actual
vessel counts may be higher than AIS data suggests. IMF PortWatch flags
data quality issues. All figures are estimates based on AIS signal density.